Actuary of the Year: The winner is . . . .

. . . . David Axene, whose firm, well, here’s a piece of the CA DOI press release (at David Axene’s web site):

Based upon a thorough review of Anthem’s calculations, Axene found numerous errors in the methodology used by Anthem to project total lifetime loss ratios. Correcting these errors resulted in lower lifetime loss ratios than initially calculated by Anthem.

The errors identified included:

  • Error #1: Double counting of aging in the calculation of underlying medical trend for the projection of total lifetime loss ratio.
  • Error #2: Anthem overstated the initial medical trend used to project claims for September 2009 for known risk factors.

Both of these errors are errors of math and not differences in actuarial opinion.

I’m trying to reach David to formally bestow the honor. In the meantime, I formally congratulate him in this post.

The actual report that catapulted Axene into the limelight is here (pdf). Other handiwork the firm has done for CA DOI is here.

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2 thoughts on “Actuary of the Year: The winner is . . . .

  1. meep says:

    I dunno… sounds like some whopper in calculating an NPV relating to Pittsburgh pensions was caught in the waning days of 2010:

    http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/10365/1114546-53.stm

  2. meep says:

    To be fair, it sounds like it was on the asset-, not liability-, side of the valuation.

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