Today, in words, I got nothin’. Fortunately, Aon has released its encyclopedic analysis (pdf) of 2010 catastrophes, which caused $38 billion in insurance losses. So I got this chart:
It compares the pre-season hurricane forecasts of Colorado State, the federal government (NOAA) and Tropical Storm Risk, an Aon-sponsored forecaster. All in all, three accurate forecasts. Fortunately, the storms tended to stay at sea.
I also have this time series from Swiss Re, whose 2010 cat overview put insured losses at $36 billion:
Insured cat losses have been creeping upward steadily the past three decades. (The chart is inflation-adjusted.) Not sure why Swiss Re charts losses from manmade disasters and earthquakes but not hurricanes, which is obviously providing the contours to the top line.