Actuarial tidbits

So what?Before too much dust gathers:

  • This study suggests that banning drivers from texting is ineffective. Pdf of study is here, and I’ve reprinted one of the key graphs above. It shows Iowa and Minnesota frequency before and after Minnesota’s ban – no change in either state. Ergo: Policy Fail. This of course shows that improvement did not occur overnight. You could have said the same thing about drunken driving statutes in the ’80s. But passing the laws and creating a stigma to the activity are long-range projects. Expecting immediate results is unrealistic. More nuanced analysis put the death toll at 16,141 over five years. Does anyone really believe typing on an itsy-bitsy keyboard is not distracting?
  • U.S. lags at risk oversight.
  • Florida’s insurer of last resort gets a rate increase – more than it wanted, thanks to sinkholes invisible to the naked eye.
  • Nate Silver formerly of fivethirtyeight.com and now a New York Times blogger, lays out in laymen’s terms how uncertainty in your projections is as important as the projection itself.
  • A lot of talk about muni bond defaults. I pass this along because p/c insurers hold a lot of munis.
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