2010 Hurricane predictions: A summary

Update: Colorado State revised its forecast. A new table can be found here.

The three major predictors of 2010 hurricane activity – NOAA, Colorado State and Accuweather’s Joe Bastardi – are all out, and they all predict a lousy year.  I’ve always wanted to see their predictions side by side, so here you go:

Here it comes.

ACE stands for Accumulated Cyclone Energy, basically measuring the total power of all the storms in a season. Quoth NOAA:

The ACE index is a wind energy index, defined as the sum of the squares of the maximum sustained surface wind speed (knots) measured every six hours for all named systems while they are at least tropical storm strength.

The agency provides this handy chart showing ACE by year:

Ready or not.

The red bar on the right is this year’s prediction range. I should also point out that a season with a low ACE isn’t necessarily good news for the insurance industry. Note that 1992 shows up as near normal, and that’s the year Hurricane Andrew hit.

Commentary: It’s been pretty clear for a while that the current hurricane season will likely be a rough one. That means exposure is high. So why are rates lower?


One thought on “2010 Hurricane predictions: A summary

  1. […] of all storms in a year. (Wonk: That number is based on the Accumulated Cyclone Energy statistic I posted about yesterday. NTC is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy normalized so that the average year has an NTC of 100. […]

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