Q3 2011 Preliminary Cat Reports

These are preliminary estimates of cat losses from major insurers for Q3 2011. I will update the list as companies report. I won’t be updating the preliminary estimates with final numbers from actual earnings reports. I’ll create a separate page when they begin to stream in.

• Allied World: $30M to $35M, including $5M development in Q2 cats.
• Allstate: $1.08B pretax, based on $215M in September, $865M in July and August. Hurricane Irene was $500M by itself.
• Alterra: $20M to $30M pretax net of reinsurance and reinstatements.
• Argo: $35M to $40M net of reinsurance and reinstatements. $20M from Irene and Danish floods and $10M from various Midwest events. The rest (sounds like about $5M to $10M to me) comes from increases in prior-quarter 2011 cats.
• Aspen: $41M pretax net of reinsurance and reinstatements – $10M from Hurricane Irene, $14M from other Q3 cats and $17M adverse development from Q2 cats.
• Cincinnati: $88M to $98M pretax, or about 11.5 to 12.5 points on the quarterly combined ratio.
• EMC Insurance Group: $19.3M pretax net of reinsurance – $8.5M in Midwest events.
• Endurance: $99M pretax net of reinsurance and reinstatements – $26M Danish flood (July), $21M Hurricane Irene, $11M Texas brushfires, $41M various Midwestern cats.
• Flagstone Re: $80M by my math, net of retrocession and reinstatement – $20M from Hurricane Irene, $10M from Danish floods, $5M from various U.S. events, $10M from its Lloyd’s unit (which it plans to shed) and $35M development from first-half events.
• Hanover: $110M to $115M pretax, including $55M to $60M from Hurricane Irene.
• HCC Insurance Holdings: $34.6M pre-tax net of reinsurance, $22.5M after-tax, mainly from Hurricane Irene.
• Montpelier Re: $80M $70M pretax net of retro recoveries and reinstatements, including $30M from US events including Hurricane Irene and the Texas wildfires, $20M from US regional aggregate covers, $10M from July Danish floods, and $10M development on June 2011 NZ quake.
• Partner Re: $180M by my math – $169M in the cat segment, including $101M development from the Tohoku earthquake in Q1 and $35M development from the February NZ earthquake. Outside the cat segment: There was another $11M development in non-cat and life segments.
• Penn Millers: $3.4M pre-tax, net of reinsurance.
• Platinum Underwriters: $112.4M pretax net of reinsurance and reinstatements – $14.1M from Hurricane Irene, $98.3M development from first and second quarter cats (mostly New Zealand earthquake, but a breakdown is at the link.) Ouch.
• Selective: $70M pretax net of reinsurance and reinstatements – $40M Hurricane Irene, $19M from various smaller catastrophes, $11M development on cats in prior quarters. (All in all, 20 points on the quarter’s combined ratio – ouch.)
• State Auto: $60M to $63M pretax, including $25M development on prior-quarter 2011 cats.
• W.R. Berkley: $50M to $60M pretax net of reinsurance and reinstatements.
• XL Group: $90M to $120M pretax net of reinsurance and reinstatements.